Medallion Metals
Published · Original dated analysis
Medallion Metals Limited · All publications →
Valuation input date: Not recorded. Latest disclosure checked: see dated source citations; no separate verified freshness timestamp is available. A publication date does not confirm a fresh source check.
Evidence confidence & valuation inputs
Source-linked does not mean independently verified. Check the cited disclosure and whether it supports the assumptions. Reported values, calculations and estimates retain the basis stated in the report. Share-count basis: Not recorded.
Risk-adjusted NAV: Unavailable
Market capitalisation: Unavailable
Valuation shares: Unavailable
Share price: Unavailable
1. Executive Summary
Medallion remains a developer whose investment case depends on converting the Ravensthorpe resource and Forrestania infrastructure into reliable production. The commodity deck is recalibrated using verified dated references, with the original study retained as a comparison.
The price bridge avoids duplicated sustaining costs and copper credits. Valuation remains conditional on commissioning, costs, funding and source dates. Detailed current NAV and fair value follow in the paid valuation section.
Commentary
Higher commodity references support the economics, while commissioning, mine-life growth and funding execution still determine whether shareholders realise that value.
2. Company Overview
Medallion Metals Limited is an ASX-listed Australian gold developer focused on building a Western Australian gold business around the combination of the Ravensthorpe Gold Project and the Forrestania Gold Project. The company’s own investor materials frame this as a Ravensthorpe-Forrestania sulphide production strategy, using the Forrestania processing infrastructure to unlock Ravensthorpe ore and accelerate the path to production.
The portfolio spans roughly 1,500km² in WA’s Southern Goldfields region, with about 600km² at Ravensthorpe and 900km² at Forrestania. Ravensthorpe contains the Kundip Mining Centre, including the Gem and Harbour View deposits, plus regional exploration ground. Forrestania adds a larger tenement footprint and, more importantly, the Cosmic Boy Concentrator and supporting infrastructure such as accommodation, power and workshops.
As of this initiation date, Medallion is best understood as a funded developer with early production exposure, not a producer in the full commercial sense. The company had completed its key feasibility work, taken FID, secured development financing and offtake, and started advancing physical works. It had also announced imminent commencement of gold processing under an Early Production Strategy. That progression differentiates it from earlier-stage juniors, but the company’s valuation still hinges primarily on development execution rather than existing production cashflow.
Commentary
The essential corporate point is simple: Medallion is no longer a concept-stage explorer, but it is not yet a proven operator. Investors are underwriting a specific build-and-ramp thesis.
3. Commodity Context
The current-price valuation uses 4160.1 USD/oz gold futures, 14495.5 USD/tonne copper cash benchmark and 0.6972 USD per AUD, observed 2026-10-19. Gold is explicitly a futures reference, not spot. A stale spot observation is not relabelled as a current close. Gold daily history ↗ · Copper cash benchmark ↗ · FX daily history ↗
The study deck of 3380 USD/oz gold, 9300 USD/tonne copper and 0.65 USD per AUD remains a historical comparison. Current prices feed the cash-flow bridge, not an NPV price-ratio multiplier.
- Gold: Futures; 4160.1 USD / oz; 2026-10-19. GC=F December contract completed-session daily close; futures, not spot.. Historical FS gold price retained as a comparison. Analyst assumptions: flat production over 5.7 years; unchanged study net-AISC cost proxy; 30% tax without depreciation shields; gold and copper incremental royalty proxies at 2.5% and 5%; full initial capital deducted with no assumed credit for spend to date; baseline silver credit unchanged. Cash and drawn debt retain 30 June 2026 dates, not current balances. Undrawn debt is not cash. Gold uses a dated futures reference, not spot. Indicative current-price scenario, not issuer guidance. Source ↗
- Copper: Benchmark; 14495.5 USD / tonne; 2026-10-19. LME official cash bid/offer midpoint, USD per metric tonne.. Cash benchmark, not the 3-month closing contract. Source ↗
- AUDUSD: Spot; 0.6972 / A$:US$; 2026-10-19. Completed-session USD per AUD reference.. Latest reliable completed-session close retrieved in this pass. Historical FS FX benchmark remains 0.65. Source ↗
Pricing qualifications: some references could not be standardized. Retain the attributed observations and explicit analyst scenario in this section; no replacement market quote has been invented.
Commentary
Commodity support has improved relative to the study deck. The current-price valuation remains an analyst scenario with product-basis, cost and execution uncertainty; a futures reference is not a guaranteed realised selling price.
4. Project Pipeline and Stage
The project pipeline is more balanced than a single-asset headline might suggest, but current value concentration remains high in the Ravensthorpe-Kundip development. At Ravensthorpe, the Kundip Mining Centre is the principal development asset and the source of the December 2025 reserve-backed feasibility case. The June 2026 annual report disclosed a total probable ore reserve at Kundip of 2.087Mt at 3.54g/t Au, 0.58% Cu and 4.05g/t Ag for 237koz gold and 12.0kt copper, supporting the current mine plan.
Forrestania adds both infrastructure and optionality. The acquired Cosmic Boy Concentrator is strategically important because it underpins the low-capex integrated development route. In addition, Medallion has begun systematic evaluation of a very large historical drilling database at Forrestania and has advanced early work at Lounge Lizard and Teddy Bear. Management’s stated pipeline items as of the July 2026 quarterly included EPC finalisation and refurbishment at Cosmic Boy, delivery of the secondary ball mill, maiden MRE work at Lounge Lizard and Teddy Bear, and progress on the Early Production Strategy.
This means the pipeline has three layers: the funded core development at Kundip, the near-term operating bridge via Cosmic Boy and Teddy Bear stockpiles/toll treatment, and the medium-term growth option across Forrestania and broader Ravensthorpe exploration. The valuation today should mainly credit the first layer, give partial strategic credit to the second, and treat the third as upside rather than banked value.
Milestone timeline
This is the report-date outlook, not a live completion check. A passed target date alone does not establish completion or failure.
Ravensthorpe Feasibility Study completed and funding package launched — December 2025
Status at report date: Completed prior to report date
Timing basis: Management announced on 15 Dec 2025 that FS had been released and FID was targeted for early CY2026; preserved as original guidance backdrop.
Dependencies: Completion of feasibility work, financing and board approval
Valuation implication: Converted Medallion from study concept toward financeable developer status; created primary sourced valuation anchor.
Evidence date: 2025-12-15 · 15 Dec 2025 capital raising announcement referencing 11 Dec 2025 FS release
Final Investment Decision for Ravensthorpe project — February 2026
Status at report date: Completed
Timing basis: Reported by company as completed in February 2026 after earlier guidance had targeted early CY2026.
Dependencies: Execution of project loan and offtake documentation
Valuation implication: Major de-risking event supporting shift from resource multiple toward project NAV methodology.
Evidence date: 2026-09-23 · 2026 Annual Report
US$50 million project loan facility and concentrate offtake secured — FY2026
Status at report date: Completed, undrawn at 30 June 2026
Timing basis: Company reported facility secured during FY26; no precise drawdown timing retrieved in reviewed sources.
Dependencies: Trafigura credit approval, offtake execution, project legal documentation
Valuation implication: Substantially improved development finance credibility and lowered immediate equity-only funding risk.
Evidence date: 2026-09-23 · 2026 Annual Report
EPBC Act approval secured — February 2026
Status at report date: Completed
Timing basis: Reported as secured in February 2026.
Dependencies: Federal environmental approval process
Valuation implication: Reduced key permitting risk on Ravensthorpe development.
Evidence date: 2026-09-23 · 2026 Annual Report
All remaining approvals and MDCP received — Post-30 June 2026, before 23 September 2026
Status at report date: Completed subsequent to FY26 year-end
Timing basis: Company stated remaining approvals were received after year-end; exact approval dates not extracted in this pass.
Dependencies: Remaining state and site approvals including MDCP
Valuation implication: Removes a major condition precedent to physical development and improves confidence in risk-adjusted NAV.
Evidence date: 2026-09-23 · 2026 Annual Report
Kundip Mining Centre development underway — Q3 2026 by evidence window
Status at report date: Commenced
Timing basis: Annual report states development commenced subsequent to year end after approvals secured.
Dependencies: Ground conditions, contractor finalization, final site approvals
Valuation implication: Moves value from paper studies toward physical execution; raises importance of schedule and cost control.
Evidence date: 2026-09-23 · 2026 Annual Report
Cosmic Boy refurbishment and modification program — Ongoing through late 2026 into 2027
Status at report date: In progress
Timing basis: Company reported about 15–20% of EPC works complete as of 19 Oct 2026; original broader plant modification schedule aligned with ore introduction guidance.
Dependencies: EPC contract execution, refurbishment scope, equipment delivery
Valuation implication: Critical path item for integrated development; delays would likely compress NAV through later cashflow timing and possible added capex.
Evidence date: 2026-10-19 · 19 Oct 2026 ASX update
Early Production Strategy gold processing at Cosmic Boy — Late October to November 2026
Status at report date: Imminent at report date
Timing basis: Management stated processing scheduled to commence next week, with first gold production and sales expected during November 2026.
Dependencies: Crusher commissioning, stockpile availability, workforce readiness
Valuation implication: Can provide early revenue, operating learning and sentiment support, but is not full validation of long-term sulphide economics.
Evidence date: 2026-10-19 · 19 Oct 2026 ASX update
Introduction of Kundip underground ore to Cosmic Boy — Q2–Q3 CY2027 management-indicated window
Status at report date: Pending
Timing basis: Same 19 Oct 2026 update references both Q2 CY2027 and Q3 CY2027 planning language; timing therefore treated as management-guided window with inconsistency noted rather than a precise date.
Dependencies: Underground mine development, haul road/intersection works, plant modification completion
Valuation implication: This is the key transition from bridge processing to core investment-case cashflow. Slippage would be materially negative for timing-sensitive NAV.
Evidence date: 2026-10-19 · 19 Oct 2026 ASX update
Maiden MREs for Lounge Lizard and Teddy Bear — Future, date not specified
Status at report date: Pending
Timing basis: Management identified maiden MREs as upcoming workstream; no precise delivery date retrieved.
Dependencies: Resource drilling, geological interpretation, JORC estimation work
Valuation implication: Potential mine-life extension and feed-flexibility upside; currently treated as upside rather than banked NAV.
Evidence date: 2026-07-31 · 31 Jul 2026 Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B report
Commentary
Medallion’s pipeline is attractive because infrastructure, mine development and exploration optionality sit in one regional system. But investors should remain disciplined: almost all present value still traces back to successful delivery of the Kundip-to-Cosmic Boy strategy.
5. Management and Governance Review
Medallion’s governance profile improved as the company crossed from advanced study work into execution. The FY26 board comprised Chair John Fitzgerald, Managing Director Paul Bennett, Non-Executive Director David Kelly and Non-Executive Director Siobhan Pelliccia, with Tony James as COO and Richard Hill as CFO. The board mix is notably relevant to the current phase: Fitzgerald brings financing and corporate advisory depth, Bennett combines mine engineering and mine finance experience, Kelly adds geology/operations/project-finance perspective, and Pelliccia contributes environmental and permitting capability within WA and federal frameworks.
Alignment is reasonable. Key management personnel held 13.0m shares at 30 June 2026, with Bennett holding 9.77m shares and 6.0m options. Chair Fitzgerald held 1.46m shares and 1.55m options. That is meaningful but not controlling, which is generally constructive for a junior developer because it aligns incentives without fully insulating management from market discipline.
The broader register is concentrated. As at 18 September 2026, the top 20 held 71.68% of issued shares. Several large lines sit in nominee accounts, limiting look-through transparency, but named holders include Lion Selection Group and Alkane Resources. Concentration can support financing execution, though it can also amplify volatility when large holders rebalance.
Management — John Fitzgerald
- Role: Non-Executive Chair
- Assessment: Long resource finance background is directly relevant to debt/equity structuring and board oversight at developer stage. Shareholding and options indicate alignment, though execution proof must still come from operating outcomes.
- Holding / alignment: 1,459,848 shares and 1,550,000 options
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Management — Paul Bennett
- Role: Managing Director
- Assessment: Key architect of Medallion’s transition from explorer to funded developer. Mining engineering, financing and project background fit current phase well. Meaningful personal equity exposure supports alignment.
- Holding / alignment: 9,773,772 shares and 6,000,000 options; separate top-20 holding also disclosed
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Management — David Kelly
- Role: Non-Executive Director
- Assessment: Adds geological, mine planning and project finance perspective from broader sector experience and public company directorships.
- Holding / alignment: 503,759 shares and 300,000 options
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Management — Siobhan Pelliccia
- Role: Non-Executive Director
- Assessment: Useful environmental/permitting capability at exactly the point Medallion is moving from approvals into execution. Strong relevance for social licence and compliance oversight.
- Holding / alignment: Nil shares and 600,000 options
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Management — Tony James
- Role: Chief Operating Officer
- Assessment: Operational capability matters heavily from this point onward because value creation now depends on refurbishment, contractor oversight and ramp-up more than exploration. Retrieved source confirms COO role but not a full standalone operating track-record assessment from primary documents reviewed here.
- Holding / alignment: 857,696 shares
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Management — Richard Hill
- Role: Chief Financial Officer
- Assessment: Finance leader relevant for drawdown, working capital and development controls. Retrieved source confirms role and holdings but gives limited detail on prior delivery record.
- Holding / alignment: 429,497 shares
- Evidence date: 2026-09-23
Key investors — HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited*
- Role: Nominee holder / grouped custody line
- Assessment: A large strategic/institutional-style register position. Exact beneficial owner behind nominee line is not identifiable from the annual report excerpt alone, so endorsement value should not be overstated.
- Holding / alignment: 140,339,694 shares (15.12%)
- Evidence date: 2026-09-18
Key investors — J P Morgan Nominees Australia Pty Limited*
- Role: Nominee holder / grouped custody line
- Assessment: Large nominee concentration supports liquidity access and indicates institutional participation, but beneficial ownership attribution is limited.
- Holding / alignment: 97,505,413 shares (10.50%)
- Evidence date: 2026-09-18
Key investors — Alkane Resources Limited
- Role: Strategic/corporate investor
- Assessment: One of the clearest named strategic holdings on the register. The position is meaningful for external validation, but should not be scored as a guaranteed execution backstop.
- Holding / alignment: 30,000,000 shares (3.23%)
- Evidence date: 2026-09-18
Key investors — Lion Selection Group Limited
- Role: Institutional/resource fund investor
- Assessment: Named institutional mining investor presence is supportive for capital markets credibility.
- Holding / alignment: 38,841,993 shares (4.18%)
- Evidence date: 2026-09-18
Commentary
This is a management team built for development finance and project delivery rather than discovery promotion. That is appropriate for the current stage, but the next test is operational execution rather than board composition.
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